In a context where the Government finds it difficult to give concrete signals to lower inflation, and given the expectation of March data that will be around 7%, April will have 6 increases that will make it difficult for the CPI to drop below 6%. The increases at the beginning of the month are: buses, trains, domestic service, private schools, prepaid and electricity rates.
In the case of private schools, the stipulated increase is 3.35%. This is part of the agreement between the chambers of private institutions with state subsidies and the Ministry of Economy to form part of Fair Prices.
For prepaid, the increase will be 2.36% for all affiliates equally because the Health Cost Index is less than 90% of the variation in formal wages (RIPTE), the indicator used to set the increase in the quota of those who earn less, according to the Superintendency of Health Services.
Domestic staff will have a new scheme of non-cumulative increases for the coming months that will imply increases of 14% in April, 7% in May and 6% in June. This was announced by the National Commission for Work at Private Homes, which depends on the Ministry of Labor.
In this way, starting next month, the hourly compensation for general tasks with retirement will be $698, while without retirement it will be $752. On the other hand, personal care staff will be worth $752 with withdrawal and $841 without withdrawal.
In the case of public transport, the ticket for buses and trains under national jurisdiction will rise 6.7% in the fourth month of the year, this is the second application of a new monthly update formula that will apply until June and is adjusted based on the base of the inflation index of Greater Buenos Aires.
The Ministry of Transport takes the CPI GBA corresponding to February as a reference to update the increases forecast for April, which was 6.7%. This will be the increase that the collectives of national jurisdiction will have in the AMBA and the second increase under this modality, to which the trains with the same percentage increase will be added starting next month.
In this way, the minimum for the minimum bus ticket in the metropolitan area as of April will cost $39.58 and the train ticket will range between $19.22 and $24.88, depending on the line.
Meanwhile, rents, those that have to renew the lease will be with an increase of 92.5% year-on-year, are almost three points higher than those that were renewed in March. With inflationary inertia, the trend for the next few months would be to increase the indexation percentages.
For its part, the electricity rate in the AMBA will rise by around 35% as a result of the fact that the new round of subsidy removal carried out by the Secretary of Energy, in charge of Flavia Royón, will add an increase in the value of the distribution.
For María Castiglioni, C&T economist, these expected increases added to the dynamics expected for the rest of the items, “for the month of April we estimate inflation around 6%.”
In a context waiting for the March data to be known, which INDEC will release on April 14, the consultants anticipate it would be around 7%. If this is the case, year-on-year inflation would be at 102.9% and would continue in the three-digit range.
March is seasonally a month of high inflation, due to the impact of the start of classes, which is reflected in education, and the start of the new season, which impacts clothing.
“Education led the increases with an increase of 14.9%, reflecting the increase in fees as well as the costs of supplies, books and educational materials, while clothing increased more than 7%,” continued Castiglioni.
And he added: “Several relevant items had rises of more than 7% in March, such as other goods and services, due to the rise in cigarettes. Housing and basic services climbed 7.4%, mainly affected by increases in water and gas. Health increased close to 7%, as a result of the adjustment in prepaid and the rise in medicines”.
Meanwhile, for Ecolatina, the IPC was located at 7.4% and regarding the variation of the items, it maintained: “Food and beverages slowed down their rate of increase to 6.7%, where a moderation played in favor, although still at levels high, in beef with 15%, vegetables 4.5% and fruits 6.1%. In the opposite direction, poultry meat had a rise of 10.5%, eggs 24.2% and dairy products played against. However, in the last 12 months the item shows an increase of 111%”.
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