In the midst of the economic crisis that led to the departure of the minister Martin Guzman of the Government, one of the Argentine missions that visited Washington to obtain the support of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) He found a forceful response, given the lack of foreign currency and the problems to supply the national production: “If there are no dollars, imports are closed, even if economic activity stops”. That ruling forced Sergio, once he took office at the Palacio de Hacienda, to implement a new foreign trade control system to accentuate the stocks on the dollar.
The request of the vice president Cristina Kirchner to align all the actors behind a claim to redo the conditions of the agreement to pay the external debt contracted with the IMF responded to the need to put political decision above economic conditions. It happens that the multilateral credit organization that leads Kristalina Georgieva It not only took into account the economic crisis, but, especially, the weakness of the government’s power, with its internal partners in full power struggle.
as he was able to reconstruct PROFILEin that talk that the staff of the Fund with officials from the Palacio de Hacienda there was no room to improve the conditions of the agreement, basically because they did not believe that the fleeting minister Silvina Batakis it represented the internal consensus. The arrival of Massa eased that scenario, but only in the first months of this year did the IMF agree to review some goalsforced by the conditions of drought, war and the slowdown of the world economy.
Cristina took stock: “Proscription, salaries on the floor, growth for four living, there is no currency and the IMF must be reviewed”
Even with those winks Georgieva’s delay in confirming the new conditions began to put the Frente de Todos on alert and gave room to Cristina Kirchner to resume their criticism of the credit agency. “The conditions under which the agreement with the IMF was signed will have to be reviewed,” although he clarified: “review, not to avoid paying, but to be able to grow.” The vice president believes that there are two factors that put an electoral anchor to the ruling party: on the one hand, inflation; and, on the other, the loss of purchasing power.
Strong companies, poor workers
Although both concepts go hand in hand, those around the former president highlighted that the plan to concentrate the results of economic growth, with a social spillover, which she put into practice Alberto Fernandez“failure”. “A development model that benefited from strengthening companies, but that impoverished workers. Because while it is true that jobs lost in the macrismo and in the pandemic were recovered, it is also true that a large part of the workers are below the poverty line. that is not peronism”, complained an official who reports to the Patria Institute.
It happens that in that sector of official Peronism they can admit inflationary pressure, “as long as wages beat remarks of the prices in the gondolas”, highlighted the same source consulted. In any case, for the vice president, the agreement for the external debt boosted the CPI: “it is part of the institutional responsibility what can happen if agreements are signed that end up being inflationary,” she said, criticizing former minister Guzmán.
The main phrases that Cristina Kirchner left in Río Negro
Cristina Kirchner sees that the FdT campaign will have to dodge the management, but differentiating itself from the president would also put it on the opposite side of Massa, whose work in the Ministry of Economy supports, despite the partial defeat in the war against inflation . The agreement with the IMF tied the issuance, typical of electoral times and allowed in crises, with the goals of fiscal adjustment. But the conditioning in foreign trade is the end of the re-election aspirations for the ruling party, because it will have to face the polls with a scenario of stagflation, with remarking of prices and an ironed economic activity. Some analysts are already reviewing growth downward due to the negative effect of the drought. For example, the consulting firm Analytica set it at 1.5%.
A debt swap in pesos in the midst of bimonetarism
In his criticism of the bi-currency economythe vice president pointed to an eventual dollarization plan that, from the ruling party, they attach to the economic plans of Together for Change. The scenario of a weak local currency and a high exchange rate gap was the background of the debt swap in pesos that made it possible to break down the walls of bond maturities that had accumulated since March and up to the primary elections. Massa tried, with local financing, to turn savings into financial investment in the domestic market, to avoid flight to parallel dollars.
“I don’t want a fiscal deficit, the virtuous thing is not to spend more than what you earn, but obviously in times of crisis it is an instrument that is needed to avoid recession. Because we can have the most feared hell, which is to have recession plus inflation. And we are in the oven,” he said. Cristina Kirchnerin his outline of the economic plan, thus marking his differences with the Alberto Fernández program.
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