The former secretary of Economic Policy and Development Planning, Emmanuel Alvarez Agis, I declare that “he FMI you know you are not going to chargebecause he sees the reservations net and realizes that the necessary dollars are not available to honor the commitment”.
In an interview with bloomberg onlinethe official during the last administration of Cristina Kirchner analyzed the economic news of the country and estimated what the inflationthe price of the dollar and the growth economic by the end of this year.
First of all, the head of the consulting firm PxQ gave his opinion on the latest Government measures to contain the dollar escape and noted that “it may be a good measure to satisfy a certain dollarization of portfolios, but It is not a good measure to satisfy a demand for foreign currency that is not going to enter the country”.
“It is one thing if one wants to provide the market with some type of exchange hedging instrument, it can be an Argentine bond that is denominated in dollars, with the parity problems that these bonds have that are very clear, another issue is if one is trying to contain a demand for foreign exchange,” he added.
The Central Bank urgently awaits the IMF dollars
“The background of the situation is, we are going to have a negative impact on the supply of dollars this yearto this negative impact nor they can be neutralized with an operation in the secondary bond market“, he asserted.
Regarding the possibility of thinking of a exchange rate unification next year, indicated that he does not see it as possible “Not only because of the specific history of Argentina, but because of what the historical experience of this type of restrictions tells us.“. For the former official, there are two problems, one of a more nominal nature and the other of a financial nature.
“The nominal has to do with the challenge that the Argentine economy faces to reduce inflation. That in an exchange unification event would only have complications rather than solutions. The second is that to think about an exchange unification, Argentina would need to be in a good technical position, when he is in a bad technical position”, he detailed.
The Government agreed with the IMF to postpone this week’s payments
As for the compliance with the debt payments to the IMF, Álvarez Agis stressed that Argentina is not in a position to solve them. Likewise, he emphasized that “it is not failing to comply because I feel like it or because there are elections. This is an event exogenous to the Argentine economy, a drought. It is not the fault of the Minister of Economy, the Frente de Todos or the opposition. There is to recover common sense in this discussion”.
Along these lines, the economist revealed that “The IMF knows that it is not going to collect, because it sees the net reserves and realizes that the necessary dollars are not there to honor the commitmentIn fact, he stressed that what is truly important is to see how this issue is dealt with because you cannot contribute to uncertainty.
Growth, with numbers backwards
Lastly, he commented that growth projections in the country worsened as a result of the drought. Likewise, he explained that there will be a retraction in the supply of food, which will generate a reduction in the supply of dollars. “This retraction of the offer is going to hit a jump to the general level of prices, without a doubt”, he sentenced.
“It is an economy that is going to fall and that probably has a little more inflation than last year“, he declared. “We don’t think the government is going to deal with that with a sharp correction of the official exchange rate. We believe that the objective will be not to delay the official exchange rate,” he concluded.
RM / LR
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