With the local front quite compromised by the historic drought that already impacts on the reserves of the Central Bank and the inflation data for February, versions came out this Monday that in the Palacio de Hacienda the idea of implementing an exchange unfolding was considered, with one official dollar and one free which, unlike the CCLwould be used for any type of service.
javier timermana partner of Adcap Grupo Financiero, was in favor of the exchange split as an option: “I think that Argentina You need dollars, you can’t always be counting your reserves,” he replied when asked by PROFILE about this issue.
And he added: “The Government has made good job building stocks product of an exchange statement with some sectors of the economy and I think it will be productive synthesize the doubling that would help to increase reserves and, on the other hand; make them worth a little more”, added one of the most heard voices in the fifth floor of the Ministry of Economy.
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“Today the importers they are buying dollars that are not the dollars that the Central Bank receivesbecause they are cheaper, and that gap It is the one that must be reduced. So yes, I see it positive”, he sentenced in statements to this medium.
It should be noted that from the Palacio de Hacienda They ruled out that this idea is hanging around the head of the owner, Sergio MassaHowever, the voices that see it as necessary, such as Timerman’s, proliferate before the situation that the Argentine economy is going through.
Subsequently, the financial analyst analyzed the liquidity crisis presented by some international banks and its impact on the Argentine economy and although it is uncertain to predict the scope that it will have, Timerman highlighted some points in which the already fragile situation of Argentina could be affected.
How could the Argentine economy be affected?
The international banking crisis would not hit directly. However, there is a risk sentiment towards emerging markets which, obviously when there is a crisis in the financial system people have to stay more liquidFor example, because it is not known the impact on withdrawals in the funds. That has a negative impact on flows,” said Timerman.
“It is a typical reaction to a liquidity crisis of the banks that can infect the pension funds, in fact, there are already some funds that have lost money with the bonds not guaranteed that he had the Swiss credit. In these cases, a lot of liquidity is needed and a lot of that liquidity comes from emerging markets, of all kinds of assets, and that’s where Argentina hits. Not directly, but indirectly,” he added.
Local factors and the international context
Timerman indicated that the weak resistance that Argentina could maintain in the face of a world crisis would be seen much darker by local factors, truncating a forceful response.
“There is less intention on the part of multilateral organizations to focus on the country when there is a systemic crisis. They cannot be so active in addressing the Argentine crisis that constantly has to be evaluated and reassessed before the organizations that have lent it money, not only the IMF, but all to whom it is owed”, he justified.
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“Besides, there are many Argentine companies that are financed abroad, either for exports, or for operating credit, this is also affected. The whole credit situation becomes more tense, there is less credit in the world, since each country tries to keep its liquidity as much as possible. This has an impact on the few credits that Argentine companies receive from abroad,” he added.
“This feeling of risk aversion has an impact on investment projects that some multinational companies may have, In mining projects, in general, Argentina receives foreign investment dollars and that tends to be evaluated with different eyes when you are in the middle of a crisis”, he concluded. javier timerman.
How can be observed, for the analyst, the financial crisis would not have major implications for the Argentine economy. “Only the first days of the event were local assets affected, but also all global ones.”
SE / LM / ds
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