the siege of Kremlin is limited to fighting in BakhmutUkrainian city besieged for eight months by Russian troops, while their tractors dig trenches and erect metal “dragon teeth” to stop the kyiv attackwhich will seek to free 16% of its occupied territory within a couple of months, with the arrival of summer and the solidification of the soils.
The force of UN monitoring in Ukraineadvance 22,734 victims: 8,490 killed and 14,244 wounded. The Russian offensive seems to be dying out with the arrival of spring rains and mud. It plans to recruit 520,000 paid troops in 2023, to sustain the war effort until the end of 2024, when the presidential elections in the United Statesif they show a victory for the Republican Party, they could reduce the financial support of Washington, essential to oppose the firepower of Vladimir Putin, ten times greater than that of Volodymir Zelensky.
The leak of papers from US security organs, whose authenticity has been officially confirmed, trace the profile of the attack that is scheduled Ukraine, a device of 12 brigades bringing together some six thousand soldiers, made up of NATO countries, especially Great Britain. The logistical support would equip mechanized infantry troops, artillery, drones, missiles, armored vehicles, weapons, howitzers, cannons, ammunition, spare parts and even Western planes operated by Ukrainians undergoing training by the manufacturing states.
For now, Russia has ceased the bombardments to destroy the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine, perhaps deterred by reports from the International Criminal Court (ICC), of a second summary with the corresponding international arrest warrants, which would be added to the arrest of two personalities on March 17, for the illegal deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia, a war crime sanctioned by the Geneva Conventions that protect civilians, prisoners and wounded during armed conflicts, ratified by Russia.
The second summary that the ICC would reveal would be based on the crime of “aggression”, which appeared in the indictment of the Nuremberg trial, and in that of Tokyo, reserved for those who have “unleashed a war”. It was added to the ICC statutes in 2010, until today ratified by a third of the 123 countries that have adhered to said jurisdiction. The crime of “aggression” is considered the “original” offense capable of justifying a “premeditated war”but it is resisted by certain countries who fear it will be used to “criminalize the legitimate use of force”, giving prosecutors the power to justify, or not, a war.
However, NGOs are fighting so that those accused of “aggression” can be tried even in absentia, and they even claim jurisdiction independent of the ICC, to end the veto power of the UN Security Council, making it impossible to go to court. the ICC for the veto power of the 5 victorious powers of World War II: Russia, the United States, China, France and Great Britain. The prospect of a kind of European Special Court, an idea supported by the Baltic countries and Poland, could be the germ of its gestation.
On the other hand, it gives the impression that Ukraine would limit the military offensive that it would launch soon, to liberating by force the regions that are the theater of hostilities (Donestsk, Lugansk, Gerson and Zaporizhia). As for Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, today fully populated by Russians after the expulsion of Ukrainians and Tatars, kyiv reserves an ultimatum at the gates of taking military action to recover it. It demands the criminal prosecution of Ukrainians who have collaborated with the Russians, the expulsion of Russians installed in Crimea after 2014, the annulment of real estate transactions carried out “under the Russian regime”, the dismantling of the Crimean bridge created by Vladimir Putin, and a change of name to the city of Sevastopol.
From Geneva, Juan Gasparini
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