The consultant, Orlando Ferreresasserted that “the economy is more orderly even though they do not achieve adequate results”, in reference to what has been the management of Sergio Massa. The inflation February and the stagflation who lives Argentina, in Modo Fontevecchiaby Net TV y Radius Profile (FM 101.9).
At the beginning of February, Ámbito Financiero published a note where several economists and experts, including you, warned about the cooling of the economy. Also, you were one of the first to announce that inflation was going to rise again. Do you confirm this thought?
As the rises inflation, economic activity also slackens. For this month we calculate 6%, with which we already we would be above 100% in the last 12 months.
In economic matters, we note, according to our general index of activity that implies the PBIwhich fell 1.3% in December, that is, it is entering a phase of slowdown or recessionin such a way that there will not be as much growth.
We have one high inflation and low activitythe worst possible combination for an election year.
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Is the number you give as your forecast for inflation in February, which could be around 6%, far from what your expectations are? Is Sergio Massa’s desire to have inflation around 3% in April or May already unattainable?
Can’t dream about it anymore was totally disoriented. This month will be complicated because there are also meat price increases (up 40%). We are going to find a surprise in terms of inflation.
What balance do you make of Sergio Massa’s management? At first the expectation was that he had achieved a kind of free fall in which he had been traveling. Then what happened?
The price of meat began to react due to the lack of demand for China and the decrease in the amount of rain for the land due to the drought locally, and that caused animals to be liquidated, so the increase in the price of meat until November was 48% or 50%.
It now had a recovery, not 100%, but it did have a difference with the total consumer price index that gave approximately 98.8%.
Alexander Gomel (AG): Is there a greater order today than when Massa arrived in the field of what macroeconomics is?
There is obviously a little more order. The economy is more orderly even if they do not achieve adequate results. That does not mean that they occur alone.
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A large part of the decrease in increases in inflation in recent months was also part of the fall in the price of meat in relation to the cost of living, that is, it had its consequences in one of the products most in demand in Argentina. .
The idea that we are going to continue growing seems difficult to achieve because we are already entering a recession important. We have a negative product increase projection for this year.
AG: Can you fall into what many fear, which is stagflation?
We’re on it. We have economic stagnation and 100% inflation, so it is a stagflation.
I don’t think this will get worse, but rather that it will continue at the same levels, because the Government is doing something and in this way manage to reduce the effects of a hyperinflation.
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Do you agree with the opposition when they say that they fear the “bomb” that this government can leave for the next president?
It’s going to leave a difficult situation, I don’t know whether to call it a bomb. The time before she assumed PvC said that nothing was wrong, that eliminating the stocks everything was fixed.
He made a small devaluation that was not enough and then he had to face the problem with a larger one at the end of the mandate when there was no time to correct the situation. It seems complicated to me that now it is going to change.
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Within the rest of the offers, do you think that Together for Change has a common plan or that they all work with different ideas?
They work with the same ideas. What we see is that both Patricia Bullrich as Horacio Rodriguez Larreta they have more or less the same plans and plan to act quickly from the start, in order to generate a complete situation.
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That may raise inflation at first, but then it would quickly drop to very small numbers. there is only one plannot several and the difference that may exist between one and the other are circumstantial.
AG: How much can inflation reach in 2023?
Inflation in 2023 can be 100%. There may be a drop and finally a rise.
BL JL
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