Inflation increases. Economic analysts estimate that inflation monthly for March 2023 will be located at 7,0%according to the third survey of expectations carried out by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) this year.
They also project an inflation annual of 110.0% yoy for the full year 2023which represents an increase of 10.2 percentage points compared to the previous survey and the inflation floor continues to rise month by month.
Top 10 short-term tipsters too forecast inflation of 7.0% for March 2023 and an increase of 108.5% yoy. in inflation for the year 2023, which represents an increase of 5.7 percentage points compared to the February estimates.
Inflation in the City of Buenos Aires was 7.1% in March
In the second month of the year, the median of the estimates suggested a monthly inflation of 6.1%, but the data turned out to be 6.6%, which translates into an increase of 0.5 percentage points in relation to said forecast. .
As for the CPI Core, analysts expect a monthly variation of 6.8% for March, 0.8 percentage points above the previous forecast. Although the best forecasters forecast inflation of 6.5% monthly in the short term.
In addition, REM participants revised upwards core inflation forecasts for 2023placing it in 109,8% i.a.which represents an increase of 12.3 percentage points compared to the previous REM.
They also project core inflation of 94.2% yoy for the year 2024representing an increase of 6.3 percentage points compared to the February survey. Finally, for the year 2025, analysts project core inflation of 51.9% yoy, which represents an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous REM.
The Gross Domestic Product
The REM revealed that city analysts expect a drop in the level of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) real for 2023 of the 2,7% compared to 2022, which represents a reduction of 2.7 percentage points in relation to the previous survey.
On the other hand, the TOP-10 of the most accurate forecasters in previous versions projects a fall of 3.0%, which implies a downward correction of 2.2 percentage points with respect to the previous REM. These data suggest a less rosy outlook for the economy in the coming years.
Historical inflation: in February it was 6.6% and reached a year-on-year rate of 102.5%
By 2024, REM participants project an average annual growth of 0.7%, which represents a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the survey conducted in February. In general, these estimates indicate a more moderate view of the country’s economic performance in the near future.
Interest rates private banks and exchange rate
According to the issued document this Friday, April 7, the BADLAR rate of private banks was 72,60%which represents an increase compared to the average rate registered during March 2023, which was 70,98%.
The most accurate short-term forecasters project the rate to stand at 72.42% in April 2023. These data suggest a bullish outlook for the interest rate in the near future.
Food inflation in Argentina is the highest in Latin America
Regarding the average nominal exchange rate, analysts forecast a value of $215.00 per dollar by April 2023which represents an increase of 6.0% compared to the previous month.
While the most accurate short-term analysts project that the average nominal exchange rate for the same period will be $215.19, which implies a monthly variation of 6.1%. This means that some stability is expected in the nominal exchange rate in the short term.
Exports and employment
According to the estimates of the REM participants, it is expected that the value of exports (FOB) for the year 2023 will reach the US$ 74,391 millionwhich exceeds the forecast of the members of the TOP-10 who projected an export value in US$ 73,813 million.
Regarding imports (CIF) for the year 2023, the projections for the set of REM participants were located at US$ 71,195 millionwhile the members of the TOP-10 they estimated them at US$71,313 million.
Therefore, REM participants estimate that by the year 2023, there will be a year-on-year drop of 15.9% in the value of exports and 12.7% in imports.
The trade balance had a surplus for the third consecutive month
Regarding employment, REM participants estimate that during the first quarter of 2023, the unemployment rate will be in 7.0% of the Economically Active Population (PEA), which represents a decrease of 0.5% compared to the previous REM.
On the other hand, the members of the TOP-10 project an unemployment rate of 6.9% for the same period. Both groups foresee an increase in the unemployment rate during the year 2023.
Lastly, regarding the fiscal deficit The nominal primary deficit of the Non-Financial National Public Sector (NFPS) is projected to reach $3.8 billion in 2023, while for 2024 a primary deficit of $3.100 billion. The average of the estimates of the 10 most accurate forecasters over the past year expect a deficit of $3.439 million by 2023.
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