The consultant Innovation, Policy and Development (IPD) published different electoral competition scenarios and one of them imposed the deputy Javier Miley as the presidential candidate with the most vote intention. The head of the Buenos Aires government, Horacio Rodriguez Larretais presented as the most competitive cambimita. Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner in the ruling party, he is the one who concentrates the largest floor of votes.
The study carried out in February on a total of 1,004 cases and which has a margin of error of +/-2.5% raised in its section “Electoral scenario 2023” some of the combinations that could occur in the dispute to reach the House Pink.
“The head of the Buenos Aires Government, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, is the political leader with the best positive image and the highest electoral ceiling at the national level, and he would prevail in the general elections, with or without Cristina Kirchner as a candidate for the Frente de Todos,” he says. the report in its summary, highlighting the good performance of the mayor of Buenos Aires.
How Cristina Kirchner and Mauricio Macri measure in the main districts of the province of Buenos Aires
However, in one of the proposed competition scenarios, the one who prevails is Milei. By a narrow margin, the economist nominated Patricia Bullrich as representative of Together for Change and Sergio Massa as candidate of the Frente de Todos. According to the numbers, it concentrates a voting intention of 28% above the 27% of the former Minister of Security and 25% of the Minister of Economy.
In the other competition simulators the winner is Rodríguez Larreta. In scenario 1, Milei (28%) and the Buenos Aires governor Axel Kicillof (25%) prevail with 32%. The section clarifies that the president would have the support of Cristina Kirchner, who announced in December that she will not appear on the 2023 ballot.
In the event that Massa is the Peronist candidate, Rodríguez Larreta would also prevail, adding 29% of intention over Milei’s 27% and 26% of the former mayor of Tigre.
Rodríguez Larreta’s numbers and Cristina Kirchner’s apartment
The discussion about the electoral floors and ceilings regarding the leaders is an open discussion in each election: no one can reliably answer how they will translate on the day voters enter the dark room.
However, the figures from the surveys offer a photograph of the scenario where the sample is carried out, directing the discussion towards possible electoral scenarios.
Regarding the image of each candidate, the IPD report states: “The PRO presidential candidate is the political leader with the best positive image at the national level (48%) and the highest positive differential (+4%). In second place is Patricia Bullrich, with a 47% positive image and a differential of +1%. And third is Javier Milei with a 39% positive image, but with a differential of -12%”.
On the other side of the polarization, the news is not auspicious: the survey indicates that Alberto Fernández (62% negative image and a differential of -32%), Cristina Kirchner (59% negative image and a differential of -22%) and Axel Kicillof (59% negative image and a differential of -28%) have the highest level of rejection. In Together for Change, Mauricio Macri garnered 60% negative image.
In the case of Cristina Kirchner, according to the survey, she continues to be the majority bearer of the Frenteto votes: she has the highest floor with 23%.
STEP scenario
The public opinion report proposed to those consulted two possible primary scenarios. In the first of them, Javier Milei wins with 16%, the same figure as Rodríguez Larreta. Very close with 15% is Patricia Bullrich. In the Front of All who prevails is Kicillof (11%) over Sergio Massa (10%).
In another context where Cristina Kirchner would compete, the one who takes the highest percentage is the Head of Government of the city of Buenos Aires (18%), equaling once again with Milei and prevailing over the Vice President (17%).
GI/fl
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