The consultant circuits measured in a survey about the possible electoral scenario to different candidates with presidential aspirations in the city of Buenos Aires and Patricia Bullrich she became the most elected politician. In addition, the possibility of competing Cristina Kirchner and the result left Horacio Rodriguez Larreta in fourth place.
The beginning of the year in which the country will have a new president continues to show a high level of polarization and uncertainty within the Frente de Todos y Juntos por el Cambio, the two most representative coalitions in society. Within this scenario two well-marked features appear: the flourishing of multiple applicants in the opposition and only the announced desire to Alberto Fernandez to compete in a primary on the side of the ruling party.
In that plenary session, Circuitos carried out a survey thinking about possible scenarios of political dispute and asked the people of Buenos Aires which leaders they would vote for for the presidential elections. The poll was carried out between February 8 and 10 with telephone surveys of a total of 1,184 people, yielding a sampling error of +/-3.5% and a confidence level of 95%.
The larretism crossed Patricia Bullrich for the Tasers: “Stop setting marketing positions”
In the first scenario prevailed Patricia Bullrich (22.3%) and was seconded by the deputy Javier Mileywho achieved a performance similar to that carried out in the 2021 midterm elections (16.3%). Horacio Rodriguez Larreta he was third and at a minimum distance from the economist, reaching 15.5% of voting intentions. In fourth place was former President Mauricio Macri with 12.4%.
“We have been seeing, above all, in the reports we make in the province of Buenos Aires that the base of Together for Change is quite radicalized, especially in the populism-anti-populism discussion.. I think there is a sector that sees Larreta as a potential dialoguist and Bullrich not. There is also part of that electorate that sees that after Cristina Kirchner’s resignation, Kirchnerism can be removed from power and believes that Bullrich better represents that idea. It is more difficult for Larreta to have a political dialogue with his base in this sense, “the director of Circuits, Pablo Romá, analyzed in dialogue with PROFILE.
For the ruling party, the news was not so auspicious in the first scenario, since its most competitive candidate was Alberto Fernández with 7%. Behind him appears Sergio Massa (6.2%) and there was even a majority that decided to choose the option “none” before a leader of Peronism (12.4%).
The electoral scenario with Cristina Kirchner
The rising breaking point for the Frente de Todos changes when Cristina Kirchner enters the electoral arena, who announced that she would not be part of the lists in December after being convicted in the Highway case. However, her decision to resign from her activated an operational clamor in the closest sectors of her, while she stands as the candidate with the highest ceiling within the space.
A Buenos Aires survey located Cristina Kirchner and Patricia Bullrich as favorites for the Presidency
Within this framework, Bullrich continues to prevail (23.4%) but in second place the Vice President appears in an electorally hostile territory for Kirchnerism, reaching 15.9%. In this way Javier Milei was relegated to third place with 14.7% and Rodríguez Larreta to fourth with 12.7%.
Roma analyzed CFK’s weight in this scenario as follows: “There is a sector of the Frente de Todos base that continues to see it as the main reference. If we think about this in terms of the votes it can contribute in a national election, it is not little thing. Then the discussion is whether or not it’s enough to win. We don’t ask to know who is going to win, but to understand how the different candidates are positioned. It’s February and you have to be cautious.”
In the figure of Javier Milei
In the case of the libertarian congressman, the political analyst also appealed for caution, taking into account the time remaining for the competitions and putting into discussion the political weight of the deputy that would originate a competitive scenario of three forces together with the ruling party and JxC.
“Milei is a social phenomenon that has a high level of representation among young people and he did very well in the last election. We have to see if that makes him a national candidate. It is a challenge that we are not ruling out. What we have been seeing is that that position of “intervening” is still difficult for him. In CABA it is better than in the province of Buenos Aires and that is a factor. Milei’s electoral base is similar to Bullrich’s and there is tension there,” Roma said.
On the other hand, he put his eye on the high percentage of respondents who do not define themselves. “This must be taken into account because the numbers are going to change,” Roma closed.
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