For him Red circle, the redefinition of the agreement of the Government with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a priority agenda for their interests. Either direct benefits of greater availability of dollars to energize sectoral activities, as well as to sustain their businesses within the global finance ecosystem.
That motivated several spaces had a key participation in making the reserve accumulation goals more flexiblecentered on the effect of the drought and the complications to sustain rising economic activity, with the capacity to generate foreign exchange.
“We have been having many meetings with the Government, the Central Bank and the entire economic team, who invited us to participate when the technical mission came in February, where we presented, in a long meeting, the iimpact of drought in all regions of the country and also by crops. We gave the Monetary Fund all the historical base of production, stock, forecasts and economic impactsamong other points”, he confirmed to PROFILEthe president of the Chamber of the Oil Industry and the CIARA-CEC Grain Exporters Center, Gustavo Idigoras.
Faced with the crisis of droughtthe producers ask that the government reviews export duties. According to industry sources, “A very strong cessation of payments spiral is at the door, because many tenants lost a large part of their production and will not be able to meet their obligations, which will generate a break in the payment chain”. There is an aggravating factor many of the contracts in the field were done informallyas admitted by the same source.
That feeling what’s wrong with it Sergio Massa with this key sector of the countryside is a sample of the “good dialogue” that the Government maintains with the establishment, although it is not the only sector of production that sits at the table with the Minister of Economy and with his economic team operators. On the fifth floor of the Palacio de Hacienda they are “convinced” that expectations are a fundamental part of your action plan and that it needs, first, a political order to be able to align, later, the technical questions. There appeared uncertainties about the intention of the Kirchnerism to advance in a new confrontation with the countryside due to the lack of liquidation of soybeans retained in the silobags.
“A more sympathetic IMF”
The presence of agricultural exporters at the negotiating table to relax the BCRA’s reserve accumulation goals gave reason to the staff who answers to the head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgievato reach a new agreement. “I understand that everyone sees it as a body that conditions the economic independence of the country, as happened at other times in the history of the country and the world, but we are facing a much more comprehensive and contemplative Fund”, analyzed the owner of one of the large exporting companies.
It happens that, both in Washington and in Buenos Aires, they knew that the default it was a matter of time and, if blood reached the river, the foreign debt of local companies would become unsustainable for their businesses. The possibility of a waiver due to the non-compliance with the accumulation of reserves in March “was going to generate more uncertainty, because it only stretched a situation that was impossible to reach due to drought, war, but also the slowdown of the world economy”, the financial manager of an agro-industrial company told this medium.
The Central Bank closed a first two-month period for oblivion. “The performance of the BCRA in the first two months of the year is a preview of how complex it will be for the monetary authority to accumulate foreign currency in 2023. In the first two months, the net balance in the MULC was negative by USD 1,100 M, the worst start to the year since records were kept (2003), with a liquidation of agriculture sinking 70% y/y”, said a report by Ecolatina. The future outlook is not encouraging: the Buenos Aires Grain Stock Exchange and the Rosario Stock Exchange adjusted their forecasts and raised the alarm for the production of the three main crops (soybeans, corn, wheat), since it would fall close to the 25% compared to last season.
More dollars, more claims
Last Tuesday, representatives of the Argentine Industrial Union (UIA) met with the Secretary of Commerce, Matias Tomboliniand with the Undersecretary of Commercial Policy and Management, German Cervantesto analyze the dynamics of the Import System of the Argentine Republic (SIRA). Over the past weekend, businessmen noticed a acceleration of approvals for the purchase of inputs abroadwhich generated a more relaxed climate due to the least amount of reproaches, although there were and crossed ones.
“What our companies are looking for is to get our factories running againBecause what happened to us last year is that we ran out of inputs and production stopped. In this way, not only is there an excess in costs due to the inflationary index, but there is also cost inflation because less is being produced,” said the president of Fundación ProTejer, Luciano Galfione, in radio statements. The textile sector is one of the first targeted for having shown a strong recovery in activity since the arrival of Alberto Fernandez to the government, but with high remarking rates in the INDEC measurement.
This position was present in the conclave between industrialists and Commerce officials, who countered: “we have noticed that there is a level of orders well above last year’s needs, when the forecast of the activity lowered”. There is another key issue: the forecast program who imposed the new system had very low level of presentation, with barely 300 companies. If they do not complete this information, the Siras will stop automatically, they clarified. That alert activated a group of factories, but work remains below the orders entered into the system.
The UIA authorities were upset by the forceful report and asked “fine tuning” to deal with urgent cases, above joint claims. But, in exchange, they asked for a greater liberalization of imports of capital goods and spare parts. “The irons deteriorate if there is no maintenance. We also need to give priority to the payment of foreign services”, requested the industrialists, in exchange for lowering the level of claims.
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